Schaftlein Report | Democrats take Control of the Senate
1) No Incumbent Senators lost. Republicans outspent $68M to $35M in PA and $30M to $10M in AZ.
1A) Inflation was top issue by 31%, Abortion next at 27%, but top issue for Democrats by 66%.
1B) Republicans gained significantly with Latinos losing by 21 but that is a fain from 2018 where they were -40.
Working class latinos broke toward Republicans
1C) 67% of voters do NOT want Biden to run in 2024
1D) Trump WAS a HUGE negative for Republicans and looks pathetic attacking DeSantis and Youngkin.
1E) Democrats won voters under the age of 30 by 28 points, under 45 by 13 points but lost over 45 by 10 points.
1F) Then8% of undecided voters broke toward Democrats. Independents were about even and that is a problem for Republicans.
1G) Even though Republicans got 5M more votes, redistricting worked in Democrats favor.
2) The House is currently Projected to go Republican by 219-216 but races are still very tight and could go either way.
For McCarthy to win Speaker post, he will have to deal with the Freedom coalition of very conservative members.
3) Republican Governors in NH, TX, GA and FL post huge wins by good governing.
4) The 2020 and 2022 Democratic coalition came through. college educated women were huge for Democrats.
5) Western states Arizona, CA and Nevada need to improve the speed of vote counting. Otherwise, the elections appears to be clean.
This is important for election integrity.
6) A federal judge in Texas halts Biden Student Loan forgiveness plan.
7) 4 students killed in Idaho and 3 Virginia football players killed by former player.
7A) 27 shot and 5 fatally in Chicago.